Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 / Dos Hermanas vs Ceuta II

Dos Hermanas vs Ceuta II Statistics & Analysis

Dos Hermanas Dos Hermanas
Oct 03, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 27%
Ceuta II Ceuta II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dos Hermanas Dos Hermanas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11680133

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dos Hermanas win · Dos Hermanas 5–0 Ceuta II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
  • Fixture: Dos Hermanas vs Ceuta II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Dos Hermanas 1.41 — Ceuta II 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Betis C 4 3 1 0 10
2 Dos Hermanas 4 3 1 0 10
3 Portuense 4 3 0 1 9
4 Utrera 4 3 0 1 9
5 Egabrense 4 2 1 1 7
6 Chiclana 4 2 1 1 7
7 Tomares 4 2 1 1 7
8 Pozoblanco 4 2 0 2 6
9 Linense 4 2 0 2 6
10 Xerez Deportivo 4 2 0 2 6
11 Cádiz II 4 1 2 1 5
12 San Roque Lepe 4 1 1 2 4
13 Sevilla III 4 1 1 2 4
14 Ceuta II 4 1 1 2 4
15 Recreativo Huelva 4 1 0 3 3
16 Conil 4 1 0 3 3
17 Bollullos 4 0 1 3 1
18 Córdoba II 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Betis C 4 11 5 +6 10
2 Dos Hermanas 4 8 2 +6 10
3 Portuense 4 8 4 +4 9
4 Egabrense 4 8 6 +2 7
5 Linense 4 7 6 +1 6
6 Utrera 4 6 5 +1 9
7 Pozoblanco 4 5 3 +2 6
8 Chiclana 4 5 4 +1 7
9 Tomares 4 5 4 +1 7
10 Recreativo Huelva 4 5 9 -4 3
11 Cádiz II 4 4 3 +1 5
12 Xerez Deportivo 4 4 5 -1 6
13 San Roque Lepe 4 4 6 -2 4
14 Sevilla III 4 4 6 -2 4
15 Bollullos 4 4 8 -4 1
16 Ceuta II 4 3 5 -2 4
17 Córdoba II 4 3 8 -5 1
18 Conil 4 2 7 -5 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Predictions