Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 / Chiclana vs Sevilla III

Chiclana vs Sevilla III Statistics & Analysis

Chiclana Chiclana
Oct 04, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Sevilla III Sevilla III
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chiclana Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11680074

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Chiclana 1–1 Sevilla III
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
  • Fixture: Chiclana vs Sevilla III
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Chiclana 1.32 — Sevilla III 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dos Hermanas 5 4 1 0 13
2 Betis C 4 3 1 0 10
3 Portuense 4 3 0 1 9
4 Utrera 4 3 0 1 9
5 Egabrense 4 2 1 1 7
6 Chiclana 4 2 1 1 7
7 Tomares 4 2 1 1 7
8 Pozoblanco 4 2 0 2 6
9 Linense 4 2 0 2 6
10 Xerez Deportivo 4 2 0 2 6
11 Cádiz II 4 1 2 1 5
12 San Roque Lepe 4 1 1 2 4
13 Sevilla III 4 1 1 2 4
14 Ceuta II 5 1 1 3 4
15 Recreativo Huelva 4 1 0 3 3
16 Conil 4 1 0 3 3
17 Bollullos 4 0 1 3 1
18 Córdoba II 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dos Hermanas 5 13 2 +11 13
2 Betis C 4 11 5 +6 10
3 Portuense 4 8 4 +4 9
4 Egabrense 4 8 6 +2 7
5 Linense 4 7 6 +1 6
6 Utrera 4 6 5 +1 9
7 Pozoblanco 4 5 3 +2 6
8 Chiclana 4 5 4 +1 7
9 Tomares 4 5 4 +1 7
10 Recreativo Huelva 4 5 9 -4 3
11 Cádiz II 4 4 3 +1 5
12 Xerez Deportivo 4 4 5 -1 6
13 San Roque Lepe 4 4 6 -2 4
14 Sevilla III 4 4 6 -2 4
15 Bollullos 4 4 8 -4 1
16 Córdoba II 4 3 8 -5 1
17 Ceuta II 5 3 10 -7 4
18 Conil 4 2 7 -5 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Predictions