Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 / Egabrense vs Portuense

Egabrense vs Portuense Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Egabrense
Sep 20, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
⚽
Portuense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Egabrense Portuense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8693546

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Portuense win · Egabrense 1–3 Portuense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
  • Fixture: Egabrense vs Portuense
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Egabrense 1.32 — Portuense 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dos Hermanas 4 3 1 0 10
2 Portuense 3 3 0 0 9
3 Betis C 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tomares 4 2 1 1 7
5 Egabrense 3 2 0 1 6
6 Pozoblanco 4 2 0 2 6
7 Xerez Deportivo 3 2 0 1 6
8 Utrera 3 2 0 1 6
9 Cádiz II 4 1 2 1 5
10 Chiclana 3 1 1 1 4
11 Ceuta II 4 1 1 2 4
12 Linense 3 1 0 2 3
13 Sevilla III 3 1 0 2 3
14 Recreativo Huelva 3 1 0 2 3
15 Conil 3 1 0 2 3
16 Bollullos 3 0 1 2 1
17 San Roque Lepe 3 0 1 2 1
18 Córdoba II 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Betis C 3 9 5 +4 7
2 Dos Hermanas 4 8 2 +6 10
3 Egabrense 3 8 6 +2 6
4 Portuense 3 6 1 +5 9
5 Pozoblanco 4 5 3 +2 6
6 Tomares 4 5 4 +1 7
7 Xerez Deportivo 3 4 3 +1 6
8 Cádiz II 4 4 3 +1 5
9 Utrera 3 4 4 0 6
10 Linense 3 4 5 -1 3
11 Sevilla III 3 4 6 -2 3
12 Recreativo Huelva 3 4 7 -3 3
13 Ceuta II 4 3 5 -2 4
14 Bollullos 3 3 6 -3 1
15 Córdoba II 4 3 8 -5 1
16 Chiclana 3 2 2 0 4
17 San Roque Lepe 3 2 5 -3 1
18 Conil 3 1 4 -3 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Predictions