Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 / Utrera vs Conil

Utrera vs Conil Statistics & Analysis

Utrera Utrera
Sep 13, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 59%
Conil Conil
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Utrera Utrera ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7424222

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Utrera win · Utrera 2–0 Conil
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
  • Fixture: Utrera vs Conil
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Utrera 1.35 — Conil 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Egabrense 2 2 0 0 6
2 Dos Hermanas 1 1 0 0 3
3 Betis C 1 1 0 0 3
4 Recreativo Huelva 1 1 0 0 3
5 Chiclana 1 1 0 0 3
6 Conil 1 1 0 0 3
7 Portuense 1 1 0 0 3
8 Cádiz II 1 0 1 0 1
9 Tomares 1 0 1 0 1
10 San Roque Lepe 1 0 1 0 1
11 Ceuta II 2 0 1 1 1
12 Linense 1 0 0 1 0
13 Pozoblanco 1 0 0 1 0
14 Xerez Deportivo 1 0 0 1 0
15 Córdoba II 1 0 0 1 0
16 Bollullos 1 0 0 1 0
17 Sevilla III 1 0 0 1 0
18 Utrera 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Egabrense 2 7 3 +4 6
2 Dos Hermanas 1 3 0 +3 3
3 Betis C 1 2 0 +2 3
4 Recreativo Huelva 1 2 0 +2 3
5 Chiclana 1 2 1 +1 3
6 Cádiz II 1 2 2 0 1
7 Tomares 1 2 2 0 1
8 Ceuta II 2 2 4 -2 1
9 Córdoba II 1 2 4 -2 0
10 Conil 1 1 0 +1 3
11 Portuense 1 1 0 +1 3
12 San Roque Lepe 1 1 1 0 1
13 Linense 1 1 2 -1 0
14 Pozoblanco 1 0 1 -1 0
15 Xerez Deportivo 1 0 1 -1 0
16 Bollullos 1 0 2 -2 0
17 Sevilla III 1 0 2 -2 0
18 Utrera 1 0 3 -3 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Predictions