Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 / Mancha Real vs Torre del Mar

Mancha Real vs Torre del Mar Statistics & Analysis

Mancha Real Mancha Real
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 59%
Torre del Mar Torre del Mar
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Torre del Mar Torre del Mar ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13225409

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Torre del Mar win · Mancha Real 1–3 Torre del Mar
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
  • Fixture: Mancha Real vs Torre del Mar
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Mancha Real 1.27 — Torre del Mar 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Melilla 5 5 0 0 15
2 Marbelli 6 4 1 1 13
3 Arenas Armilla 5 3 2 0 11
4 Motril 5 3 2 0 11
5 Málaga II 5 3 1 1 10
6 Almería II 5 3 1 1 10
7 UD San Pedro 5 3 0 2 9
8 Granada II 5 2 1 2 7
9 Alhaurino 6 2 1 3 7
10 Churriana Vega 5 2 0 3 6
11 Atlético Porcuna 5 2 0 3 6
12 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 5 1 2 2 5
13 Huétor Vega 5 1 2 2 5
14 Torre del Mar 5 1 1 3 4
15 Atletico de Marbella 5 1 1 3 4
16 Cantoria 5 0 3 2 3
17 Mancha Real 5 0 2 3 2
18 Malaga City 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Melilla 5 11 3 +8 15
2 Málaga II 5 11 4 +7 10
3 Almería II 5 9 3 +6 10
4 Churriana Vega 5 9 9 0 6
5 Arenas Armilla 5 8 4 +4 11
6 Motril 5 8 4 +4 11
7 Marbelli 6 8 5 +3 13
8 Granada II 5 7 4 +3 7
9 UD San Pedro 5 7 8 -1 9
10 Huétor Vega 5 7 9 -2 5
11 Atlético Porcuna 5 6 14 -8 6
12 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 5 5 6 -1 5
13 Alhaurino 6 5 7 -2 7
14 Cantoria 5 4 7 -3 3
15 Torre del Mar 5 3 5 -2 4
16 Malaga City 5 3 11 -8 0
17 Atletico de Marbella 5 2 5 -3 4
18 Mancha Real 5 2 7 -5 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Predictions