Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla Statistics & Analysis

Torre del Mar

Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00

0 1.33

1 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Arenas Armilla

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Torre del Mar Arenas Armilla ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11679938

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Arenas Armilla win · Torre del Mar 0–1 Arenas Armilla

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Fixture: Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Torre del Mar 1.33 — Arenas Armilla 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Melilla	4	4	0	0	12
2	Málaga II	5	3	1	1	10
3	Marbelli	4	3	1	0	10
4	Almería II	4	3	0	1	9
5	UD San Pedro	4	3	0	1	9
6	Arenas Armilla	4	2	2	0	8
7	Motril	4	2	2	0	8
8	Granada II	5	2	1	2	7
9	Atlético Porcuna	4	2	0	2	6
10	Torre del Mar	4	1	1	2	4
11	Atletico de Marbella	4	1	1	2	4
12	Alhaurino	4	1	1	2	4
13	Churriana Vega	4	1	0	3	3
14	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	4	0	2	2	2
15	Mancha Real	4	0	2	2	2
16	Cantoria	4	0	2	2	2
17	Huétor Vega	4	0	2	2	2
18	Malaga City	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Málaga II	5	11	4	+7	10
2	Melilla	4	9	2	+7	12
3	Almería II	4	8	2	+6	9
4	Marbelli	4	7	3	+4	10
5	Arenas Armilla	4	7	4	+3	8
6	Granada II	5	7	4	+3	7
7	Churriana Vega	4	6	7	-1	3
8	Motril	4	5	2	+3	8
9	UD San Pedro	4	5	5	0	9
10	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	4	4	6	-2	2
11	Huétor Vega	4	4	9	-5	2
12	Atlético Porcuna	4	4	11	-7	6
13	Torre del Mar	4	3	4	-1	4
14	Cantoria	4	3	6	-3	2
15	Malaga City	4	3	10	-7	0
16	Atletico de Marbella	4	2	4	-2	4
17	Mancha Real	4	2	4	-2	2
18	Alhaurino	4	2	5	-3	4