Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 / Malaga City vs Marbelli

Malaga City vs Marbelli Statistics & Analysis

Malaga City Malaga City
Oct 04, 2026 - 16:15
0 1.20
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 64%
Marbelli Marbelli
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Marbelli Marbelli ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11679902

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Marbelli win · Malaga City 0–1 Marbelli
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
  • Fixture: Malaga City vs Marbelli
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Malaga City 1.2 — Marbelli 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Melilla 4 4 0 0 12
2 Málaga II 5 3 1 1 10
3 Marbelli 4 3 1 0 10
4 Almería II 4 3 0 1 9
5 UD San Pedro 4 3 0 1 9
6 Arenas Armilla 4 2 2 0 8
7 Motril 4 2 2 0 8
8 Granada II 5 2 1 2 7
9 Atlético Porcuna 4 2 0 2 6
10 Torre del Mar 4 1 1 2 4
11 Atletico de Marbella 4 1 1 2 4
12 Alhaurino 4 1 1 2 4
13 Churriana Vega 4 1 0 3 3
14 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4 0 2 2 2
15 Mancha Real 4 0 2 2 2
16 Cantoria 4 0 2 2 2
17 Huétor Vega 4 0 2 2 2
18 Malaga City 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Málaga II 5 11 4 +7 10
2 Melilla 4 9 2 +7 12
3 Almería II 4 8 2 +6 9
4 Marbelli 4 7 3 +4 10
5 Arenas Armilla 4 7 4 +3 8
6 Granada II 5 7 4 +3 7
7 Churriana Vega 4 6 7 -1 3
8 Motril 4 5 2 +3 8
9 UD San Pedro 4 5 5 0 9
10 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4 4 6 -2 2
11 Huétor Vega 4 4 9 -5 2
12 Atlético Porcuna 4 4 11 -7 6
13 Torre del Mar 4 3 4 -1 4
14 Cantoria 4 3 6 -3 2
15 Malaga City 4 3 10 -7 0
16 Atletico de Marbella 4 2 4 -2 4
17 Mancha Real 4 2 4 -2 2
18 Alhaurino 4 2 5 -3 4
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Predictions