Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 / Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real

Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real Statistics & Analysis

Huétor Vega Huétor Vega
Oct 04, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 46%
Mancha Real Mancha Real
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Huétor Vega Huétor Vega ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11679869

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Huétor Vega win · Huétor Vega 3–0 Mancha Real
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
  • Fixture: Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Huétor Vega 1.37 — Mancha Real 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Melilla 4 4 0 0 12
2 Málaga II 5 3 1 1 10
3 Marbelli 4 3 1 0 10
4 Almería II 4 3 0 1 9
5 UD San Pedro 4 3 0 1 9
6 Arenas Armilla 4 2 2 0 8
7 Motril 4 2 2 0 8
8 Granada II 5 2 1 2 7
9 Atlético Porcuna 4 2 0 2 6
10 Torre del Mar 4 1 1 2 4
11 Atletico de Marbella 4 1 1 2 4
12 Alhaurino 4 1 1 2 4
13 Churriana Vega 4 1 0 3 3
14 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4 0 2 2 2
15 Mancha Real 4 0 2 2 2
16 Cantoria 4 0 2 2 2
17 Huétor Vega 4 0 2 2 2
18 Malaga City 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Málaga II 5 11 4 +7 10
2 Melilla 4 9 2 +7 12
3 Almería II 4 8 2 +6 9
4 Marbelli 4 7 3 +4 10
5 Arenas Armilla 4 7 4 +3 8
6 Granada II 5 7 4 +3 7
7 Churriana Vega 4 6 7 -1 3
8 Motril 4 5 2 +3 8
9 UD San Pedro 4 5 5 0 9
10 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4 4 6 -2 2
11 Huétor Vega 4 4 9 -5 2
12 Atlético Porcuna 4 4 11 -7 6
13 Torre del Mar 4 3 4 -1 4
14 Cantoria 4 3 6 -3 2
15 Malaga City 4 3 10 -7 0
16 Atletico de Marbella 4 2 4 -2 4
17 Mancha Real 4 2 4 -2 2
18 Alhaurino 4 2 5 -3 4
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Predictions