Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 / UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II

UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II Statistics & Analysis

UD Santa Marta UD Santa Marta
Oct 04, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 61%
Cultural Leonesa II Cultural Leonesa II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 UD Santa Marta UD Santa Marta ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11684173

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UD Santa Marta win · UD Santa Marta 2–0 Cultural Leonesa II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
  • Fixture: UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): UD Santa Marta 1.4 — Cultural Leonesa II 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Burgos Promesas 5 4 1 0 13
2 Atlético Mansillés 4 3 1 0 10
3 Cultural Leonesa II 4 3 1 0 10
4 La Virgen del Camino 4 3 0 1 9
5 UD Santa Marta 4 3 0 1 9
6 Arandina 5 2 2 1 8
7 Almazán 5 1 4 0 7
8 Palencia CF 5 2 1 2 7
9 Bembibre 4 2 1 1 7
10 Cristo Atlético 4 2 1 1 7
11 Calasanz de Soria 5 2 1 2 7
12 Villaralbo 5 1 2 2 5
13 Salamanca II 5 1 1 3 4
14 Guijuelo 4 1 0 3 3
15 Unionistas II 4 0 2 2 2
16 Turégano 5 0 2 3 2
17 Mirandés II 5 0 1 4 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Burgos Promesas 5 9 1 +8 13
2 Villaralbo 5 9 7 +2 5
3 Almazán 5 8 7 +1 7
4 La Virgen del Camino 4 7 3 +4 9
5 Arandina 5 7 6 +1 8
6 Palencia CF 5 7 6 +1 7
7 Calasanz de Soria 5 7 9 -2 7
8 Atlético Mansillés 4 6 2 +4 10
9 UD Santa Marta 4 6 4 +2 9
10 Salamanca II 5 6 11 -5 4
11 Bembibre 4 5 4 +1 7
12 Cultural Leonesa II 4 4 0 +4 10
13 Guijuelo 4 4 5 -1 3
14 Unionistas II 4 4 6 -2 2
15 Cristo Atlético 4 3 3 0 7
16 Turégano 5 3 7 -4 2
17 Mirandés II 5 2 7 -5 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 5 1 10 -9 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Predictions