Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 / Mirandés II vs Burgos Promesas

Mirandés II vs Burgos Promesas Statistics & Analysis

Mirandés II Mirandés II
Oct 03, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 77%
Burgos Promesas Burgos Promesas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Burgos Promesas Burgos Promesas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11250664

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Burgos Promesas win · Mirandés II 1–2 Burgos Promesas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
  • Fixture: Mirandés II vs Burgos Promesas
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Mirandés II 1.27 — Burgos Promesas 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Burgos Promesas 5 4 1 0 13
2 Cristo Atlético 6 4 1 1 13
3 Cultural Leonesa II 6 4 1 1 13
4 Bembibre 6 4 1 1 13
5 UD Santa Marta 5 4 0 1 12
6 La Virgen del Camino 6 4 0 2 12
7 Atlético Mansillés 5 3 1 1 10
8 Arandina 6 2 2 2 8
9 Palencia CF 5 2 1 2 7
10 Almazán 6 1 4 1 7
11 Calasanz de Soria 5 2 1 2 7
12 Villaralbo 6 1 3 2 6
13 Guijuelo 5 2 0 3 6
14 Salamanca II 5 1 1 3 4
15 Turégano 6 0 3 3 3
16 Unionistas II 6 0 2 4 2
17 Mirandés II 6 0 1 5 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Villaralbo 6 11 9 +2 6
2 Almazán 6 10 12 -2 7
3 Burgos Promesas 5 9 1 +8 13
4 Cristo Atlético 6 9 4 +5 13
5 Cultural Leonesa II 6 9 4 +5 13
6 Bembibre 6 9 5 +4 13
7 UD Santa Marta 5 8 4 +4 12
8 La Virgen del Camino 6 8 5 +3 12
9 Arandina 6 8 9 -1 8
10 Palencia CF 5 7 6 +1 7
11 Calasanz de Soria 5 7 9 -2 7
12 Atlético Mansillés 5 6 3 +3 10
13 Guijuelo 5 6 5 +1 6
14 Salamanca II 5 6 11 -5 4
15 Turégano 6 5 9 -4 3
16 Unionistas II 6 5 11 -6 2
17 Mirandés II 6 2 9 -7 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 5 1 10 -9 1