Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 / Turégano vs Guijuelo

Turégano vs Guijuelo Statistics & Analysis

Turégano Turégano
Sep 12, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.17
3 1.43
xG Accuracy: 62%
Guijuelo Guijuelo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guijuelo Guijuelo ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7461570

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guijuelo win · Turégano 1–3 Guijuelo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
  • Fixture: Turégano vs Guijuelo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Turégano 1.17 — Guijuelo 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Burgos Promesas 3 3 0 0 9
2 UD Santa Marta 3 3 0 0 9
3 La Virgen del Camino 4 3 0 1 9
4 Cultural Leonesa II 3 3 0 0 9
5 Atlético Mansillés 3 2 1 0 7
6 Arandina 4 2 1 1 7
7 Cristo Atlético 4 2 1 1 7
8 Calasanz de Soria 4 2 0 2 6
9 Almazán 3 1 2 0 5
10 Villaralbo 4 1 1 2 4
11 Bembibre 3 1 1 1 4
12 Guijuelo 3 1 0 2 3
13 Palencia CF 3 1 0 2 3
14 Unionistas II 4 0 2 2 2
15 Mirandés II 3 0 1 2 1
16 Turégano 4 0 1 3 1
17 Salamanca II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Burgos Promesas 3 7 0 +7 9
2 La Virgen del Camino 4 7 3 +4 9
3 Villaralbo 4 7 5 +2 4
4 UD Santa Marta 3 6 1 +5 9
5 Arandina 4 6 5 +1 7
6 Atlético Mansillés 3 5 2 +3 7
7 Almazán 3 5 4 +1 5
8 Calasanz de Soria 4 5 7 -2 6
9 Salamanca II 4 5 11 -6 1
10 Cultural Leonesa II 3 4 0 +4 9
11 Unionistas II 4 4 6 -2 2
12 Cristo Atlético 4 3 3 0 7
13 Bembibre 3 3 3 0 4
14 Guijuelo 3 3 3 0 3
15 Palencia CF 3 2 4 -2 3
16 Turégano 4 2 6 -4 1
17 Mirandés II 3 1 4 -3 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 3 0 8 -8 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Predictions