Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 / Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas

Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas Statistics & Analysis

Trival Valderas Trival Valderas
Oct 04, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 79%
Las Rozas Las Rozas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Trival Valderas Trival Valderas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11684130

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Trival Valderas win · Trival Valderas 2–1 Las Rozas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
  • Fixture: Trival Valderas vs Las Rozas
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Trival Valderas 1.37 — Las Rozas 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Colonia Moscardó 6 3 3 0 12
2 Cala Pozuelo 6 4 0 2 12
3 Trival Valderas 5 3 2 0 11
4 Móstoles 5 3 2 0 11
5 Las Rozas 5 3 1 1 10
6 Galapagar 5 2 2 1 8
7 RC Alcobendas 6 2 2 2 8
8 Fuenlabrada 5 2 2 1 8
9 Leganés II 5 2 1 2 7
10 Torrejón 5 2 0 3 6
11 Unión Adarve 5 1 3 1 6
12 Pozuelo Alarcón 5 1 3 1 6
13 Parla Escuela 5 1 2 2 5
14 Alcobendas Sport 5 1 2 2 5
15 Real Aranjuez 6 1 2 3 5
16 SS Reyes II 5 1 0 4 3
17 Villanueva Pardillo 5 1 0 4 3
18 Rayo Vallecano II 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Colonia Moscardó 6 15 6 +9 12
2 RC Alcobendas 6 12 11 +1 8
3 Las Rozas 5 11 6 +5 10
4 Cala Pozuelo 6 10 8 +2 12
5 Galapagar 5 10 8 +2 8
6 Real Aranjuez 6 10 14 -4 5
7 Leganés II 5 9 6 +3 7
8 Trival Valderas 5 8 4 +4 11
9 Fuenlabrada 5 7 6 +1 8
10 Parla Escuela 5 7 8 -1 5
11 Pozuelo Alarcón 5 7 10 -3 6
12 SS Reyes II 5 7 13 -6 3
13 Móstoles 5 6 2 +4 11
14 Torrejón 5 6 5 +1 6
15 Unión Adarve 5 6 8 -2 6
16 Rayo Vallecano II 5 6 13 -7 1
17 Villanueva Pardillo 5 5 13 -8 3
18 Alcobendas Sport 5 4 5 -1 5
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Predictions