Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 / Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada

Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada Statistics & Analysis

Unión Adarve Unión Adarve
Sep 27, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.40
2 1.20
xG Accuracy: 68%
Fuenlabrada Fuenlabrada
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Unión Adarve Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10083373

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Unión Adarve 2–2 Fuenlabrada
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Unión Adarve (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Unión Adarve (1X2) by about 8.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Unión Adarve (1X2) 40.0 31.2 +8.8
Draw (1X2) 29.5 28.1 +1.4
Fuenlabrada (1X2) 30.6 40.8 -10.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 43.7 +4.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 56.3 -4.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.0% on Unión Adarve (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 31.2%. The difference — about 8.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Unión Adarve (1X2) 2.88 2.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0
Fuenlabrada (1X2) 2.2 2.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.15 2.15 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
  • Fixture: Unión Adarve vs Fuenlabrada
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Unión Adarve 1.4 — Fuenlabrada 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.1% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Trival Valderas 4 2 2 0 8
2 Colonia Moscardó 3 2 1 0 7
3 Las Rozas 3 2 1 0 7
4 Móstoles 3 2 1 0 7
5 Leganés II 4 2 0 2 6
6 Cala Pozuelo 4 2 0 2 6
7 Galapagar 3 1 2 0 5
8 RC Alcobendas 3 1 2 0 5
9 Unión Adarve 3 1 2 0 5
10 Parla Escuela 3 1 1 1 4
11 Fuenlabrada 3 1 1 1 4
12 Pozuelo Alarcón 3 0 3 0 3
13 Torrejón 3 1 0 2 3
14 SS Reyes II 3 1 0 2 3
15 Alcobendas Sport 3 0 2 1 2
16 Rayo Vallecano II 3 0 1 2 1
17 Real Aranjuez 4 0 1 3 1
18 Villanueva Pardillo 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Leganés II 4 8 5 +3 6
2 Colonia Moscardó 3 7 2 +5 7
3 Las Rozas 3 7 4 +3 7
4 Galapagar 3 7 4 +3 5
5 RC Alcobendas 3 7 4 +3 5
6 Trival Valderas 4 6 3 +3 8
7 Parla Escuela 3 5 5 0 4
8 Cala Pozuelo 4 5 6 -1 6
9 Móstoles 3 4 1 +3 7
10 Unión Adarve 3 4 2 +2 5
11 Fuenlabrada 3 4 4 0 4
12 Real Aranjuez 4 4 10 -6 1
13 Pozuelo Alarcón 3 3 3 0 3
14 Rayo Vallecano II 3 3 7 -4 1
15 Torrejón 3 2 4 -2 3
16 SS Reyes II 3 2 5 -3 3
17 Villanueva Pardillo 3 2 10 -8 0
18 Alcobendas Sport 3 1 2 -1 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Predictions