Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 / Torrejón vs Móstoles

Torrejón vs Móstoles Statistics & Analysis

Torrejón Torrejón
Sep 27, 2026 - 09:30
0 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Móstoles Móstoles
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Torrejón Móstoles ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10081522

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Móstoles win · Torrejón 0–1 Móstoles
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
  • Fixture: Torrejón vs Móstoles
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Torrejón 1.41 — Móstoles 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Trival Valderas 4 2 2 0 8
2 Colonia Moscardó 3 2 1 0 7
3 Las Rozas 3 2 1 0 7
4 Móstoles 3 2 1 0 7
5 Leganés II 4 2 0 2 6
6 Cala Pozuelo 4 2 0 2 6
7 Galapagar 3 1 2 0 5
8 RC Alcobendas 3 1 2 0 5
9 Unión Adarve 3 1 2 0 5
10 Parla Escuela 3 1 1 1 4
11 Fuenlabrada 3 1 1 1 4
12 Pozuelo Alarcón 3 0 3 0 3
13 Torrejón 3 1 0 2 3
14 SS Reyes II 3 1 0 2 3
15 Alcobendas Sport 3 0 2 1 2
16 Rayo Vallecano II 3 0 1 2 1
17 Real Aranjuez 4 0 1 3 1
18 Villanueva Pardillo 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Leganés II 4 8 5 +3 6
2 Colonia Moscardó 3 7 2 +5 7
3 Las Rozas 3 7 4 +3 7
4 Galapagar 3 7 4 +3 5
5 RC Alcobendas 3 7 4 +3 5
6 Trival Valderas 4 6 3 +3 8
7 Parla Escuela 3 5 5 0 4
8 Cala Pozuelo 4 5 6 -1 6
9 Móstoles 3 4 1 +3 7
10 Unión Adarve 3 4 2 +2 5
11 Fuenlabrada 3 4 4 0 4
12 Real Aranjuez 4 4 10 -6 1
13 Pozuelo Alarcón 3 3 3 0 3
14 Rayo Vallecano II 3 3 7 -4 1
15 Torrejón 3 2 4 -2 3
16 SS Reyes II 3 2 5 -3 3
17 Villanueva Pardillo 3 2 10 -8 0
18 Alcobendas Sport 3 1 2 -1 2