Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 / Hércules II vs Eldense B

Hércules II vs Eldense B Statistics & Analysis

Hércules II Hércules II
Oct 03, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
Eldense B
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Eldense B Hércules II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11250474

Closing Odds 2.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Hércules II win · Hércules II 1–0 Eldense B
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Eldense B (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Eldense B (1X2) by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Hércules II (1X2) 32.9 36.5 -3.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 30.7 -1.1
Eldense B (1X2) 37.6 32.8 +4.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.2 +4.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.8 -4.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Eldense B (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.8%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Hércules II (1X2) 2.48 2.48 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.95 2.95 0.0
Eldense B (1X2) 2.76 2.76 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.11 2.11 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6
  • Fixture: Hércules II vs Eldense B
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Hércules II 1.25 — Eldense B 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.1% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vall de Uxó 4 3 1 0 10
2 Villarreal III 4 3 0 1 9
3 Hércules II 5 2 2 1 8
4 Roda 5 2 2 1 8
5 Eldense B 5 2 2 1 8
6 Torrent 4 2 1 1 7
7 Levante II 4 2 1 1 7
8 Crevillente 4 1 3 0 6
9 Acero 5 1 3 1 6
10 Ontinyent 1931 4 2 0 2 6
11 SC Torrevieja 5 2 0 3 6
12 Buñol 4 1 2 1 5
13 Jove Español 5 1 2 2 5
14 Saguntino 4 1 1 2 4
15 Soneja 5 1 1 3 4
16 Atzeneta 4 0 3 1 3
17 Utiel 4 0 3 1 3
18 Torrellano 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Torrent 4 8 5 +3 7
2 Hércules II 5 8 6 +2 8
3 Vall de Uxó 4 7 1 +6 10
4 Roda 5 7 5 +2 8
5 Villarreal III 4 6 3 +3 9
6 Crevillente 4 6 5 +1 6
7 Jove Español 5 6 10 -4 5
8 Levante II 4 5 2 +3 7
9 Eldense B 5 5 3 +2 8
10 Acero 5 5 4 +1 6
11 Ontinyent 1931 4 5 4 +1 6
12 Soneja 5 5 9 -4 4
13 Saguntino 4 4 5 -1 4
14 SC Torrevieja 5 4 7 -3 6
15 Atzeneta 4 3 4 -1 3
16 Buñol 4 3 5 -2 5
17 Torrellano 5 3 10 -7 1
18 Utiel 4 2 4 -2 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Predictions