Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 / Villarreal III vs Roda

Villarreal III vs Roda Statistics & Analysis

Villarreal III Villarreal III
Sep 13, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.50
1 1.10
xG Accuracy: 85%
Roda Roda
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Villarreal III Villarreal III ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7452306

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Villarreal III win · Villarreal III 2–1 Roda
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6
  • Fixture: Villarreal III vs Roda
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Villarreal III 1.5 — Roda 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Villarreal III 4 3 0 1 9
2 Eldense B 4 2 2 0 8
3 Torrent 4 2 1 1 7
4 Levante II 4 2 1 1 7
5 Vall de Uxó 3 2 1 0 7
6 Hércules II 4 2 1 1 7
7 Crevillente 3 1 2 0 5
8 Acero 4 1 2 1 5
9 Buñol 3 1 2 0 5
10 Roda 3 1 1 1 4
11 Soneja 3 1 1 1 4
12 Saguntino 3 1 0 2 3
13 Ontinyent 1931 3 1 0 2 3
14 SC Torrevieja 3 1 0 2 3
15 Atzeneta 4 0 2 2 2
16 Utiel 3 0 2 1 2
17 Jove Español 4 0 2 2 2
18 Torrellano 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Torrent 4 8 5 +3 7
2 Hércules II 4 7 5 +2 7
3 Villarreal III 4 6 3 +3 9
4 Eldense B 4 5 2 +3 8
5 Levante II 4 5 2 +3 7
6 Vall de Uxó 3 4 1 +3 7
7 Crevillente 3 4 3 +1 5
8 Acero 4 4 3 +1 5
9 Roda 3 4 4 0 4
10 Soneja 3 4 5 -1 4
11 Jove Español 4 4 9 -5 2
12 Buñol 3 3 2 +1 5
13 Saguntino 3 2 3 -1 3
14 Ontinyent 1931 3 2 4 -2 3
15 Atzeneta 4 2 4 -2 2
16 SC Torrevieja 3 2 5 -3 3
17 Torrellano 3 2 6 -4 0
18 Utiel 3 1 3 -2 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Predictions