Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 / Vilassar Mar vs Europa II

Vilassar Mar vs Europa II Statistics & Analysis

Vilassar Mar Vilassar Mar
Oct 04, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.31
6 1.29
xG Accuracy: 25%
Europa II Europa II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vilassar Mar Europa II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11685012

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Europa II win · Vilassar Mar 1–6 Europa II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Vilassar Mar vs Europa II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Vilassar Mar 1.31 — Europa II 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Badalona 5 3 0 2 9
2 Montañesa 4 3 0 1 9
3 Europa II 5 2 2 1 8
4 Vilanova 4 2 2 0 8
5 Atlètic Lleida 6 2 2 2 8
6 Grama 4 2 1 1 7
7 Pobla Mafumet 5 2 1 2 7
8 L'Escala 5 2 1 2 7
9 L'Hospitalet 4 1 3 0 6
10 Cornellà 4 1 3 0 6
11 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 5 2 0 3 6
12 Peralada 4 1 2 1 5
13 Martinenc 4 1 2 1 5
14 Cerdanyola del Vallès 4 1 2 1 5
15 Mollerussa 4 1 1 2 4
16 San Cristóbal 4 1 1 2 4
17 Vilassar Mar 6 1 1 4 4
18 Tona 5 1 0 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Badalona 5 10 4 +6 9
2 Europa II 5 10 6 +4 8
3 Pobla Mafumet 5 8 7 +1 7
4 L'Escala 5 8 7 +1 7
5 Martinenc 4 8 8 0 5
6 Vilanova 4 7 5 +2 8
7 Atlètic Lleida 6 7 8 -1 8
8 Grama 4 6 3 +3 7
9 L'Hospitalet 4 6 4 +2 6
10 Cornellà 4 6 4 +2 6
11 Montañesa 4 5 1 +4 9
12 Peralada 4 5 3 +2 5
13 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 5 5 10 -5 6
14 Vilassar Mar 6 5 15 -10 4
15 Cerdanyola del Vallès 4 4 5 -1 5
16 San Cristóbal 4 4 8 -4 4
17 Tona 5 4 9 -5 3
18 Mollerussa 4 2 3 -1 4
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions