Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 / Tona vs Badalona

Tona vs Badalona Statistics & Analysis

Tona Tona
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 59%
Badalona Badalona
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Badalona Badalona ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11250457

Closing Odds 2.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Badalona win · Tona 1–3 Badalona
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Badalona (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 7.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Tona (1X2) 32.9 31.9 +1.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 31.8 -2.2
Badalona (1X2) 37.6 36.4 +1.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 40.4 +7.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 59.6 -7.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.4%. The difference — about 7.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Tona (1X2) 2.84 2.84 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.85 2.85 0.0
Badalona (1X2) 2.49 2.49 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.3 2.3 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.56 1.56 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Tona vs Badalona
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Tona 1.25 — Badalona 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +10.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Badalona 5 3 0 2 9
2 Montañesa 4 3 0 1 9
3 Vilanova 4 2 2 0 8
4 Grama 4 2 1 1 7
5 L'Hospitalet 4 1 3 0 6
6 Cornellà 4 1 3 0 6
7 Pobla Mafumet 4 2 0 2 6
8 L'Escala 4 2 0 2 6
9 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 4 2 0 2 6
10 Peralada 4 1 2 1 5
11 Martinenc 4 1 2 1 5
12 Cerdanyola del Vallès 4 1 2 1 5
13 Europa II 4 1 2 1 5
14 Mollerussa 4 1 1 2 4
15 San Cristóbal 4 1 1 2 4
16 Atlètic Lleida 4 1 1 2 4
17 Tona 5 1 0 4 3
18 Vilassar Mar 4 1 0 3 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Badalona 5 10 4 +6 9
2 Martinenc 4 8 8 0 5
3 Vilanova 4 7 5 +2 8
4 Pobla Mafumet 4 7 6 +1 6
5 Grama 4 6 3 +3 7
6 L'Hospitalet 4 6 4 +2 6
7 Cornellà 4 6 4 +2 6
8 L'Escala 4 6 5 +1 6
9 Montañesa 4 5 1 +4 9
10 Peralada 4 5 3 +2 5
11 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 4 5 7 -2 6
12 Cerdanyola del Vallès 4 4 5 -1 5
13 Europa II 4 4 5 -1 5
14 San Cristóbal 4 4 8 -4 4
15 Tona 5 4 9 -5 3
16 Atlètic Lleida 4 3 7 -4 4
17 Mollerussa 4 2 3 -1 4
18 Vilassar Mar 4 2 7 -5 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions