Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 / Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida

Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida Statistics & Analysis

Peralada Peralada
Sep 27, 2026 - 14:30
3 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 42%
Atlètic Lleida Atlètic Lleida
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlètic Lleida Peralada ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10100043

Closing Odds 2.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Peralada win · Peralada 3–0 Atlètic Lleida
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atlètic Lleida (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atlètic Lleida (1X2) by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Peralada (1X2) 31.0 36.1 -5.1
Draw (1X2) 29.5 30.2 -0.7
Atlètic Lleida (1X2) 39.5 33.7 +5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.5% on Atlètic Lleida (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 33.7%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: SBO

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Peralada (1X2) 2.34 2.34 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.8 2.8 0.0
Atlètic Lleida (1X2) 2.51 2.51 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Peralada 1.21 — Atlètic Lleida 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.6% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Montañesa 3 3 0 0 9
2 Pobla Mafumet 3 2 0 1 6
3 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 4 2 0 2 6
4 Cornellà 3 1 2 0 5
5 L'Hospitalet 3 1 2 0 5
6 Martinenc 3 1 2 0 5
7 Vilanova 3 1 2 0 5
8 San Cristóbal 3 1 1 1 4
9 Grama 3 1 1 1 4
10 Atlètic Lleida 3 1 1 1 4
11 Cerdanyola del Vallès 3 1 1 1 4
12 Badalona 3 1 0 2 3
13 L'Escala 3 1 0 2 3
14 Mollerussa 3 1 0 2 3
15 Vilassar Mar 3 1 0 2 3
16 Tona 4 1 0 3 3
17 Peralada 3 0 2 1 2
18 Europa II 3 0 2 1 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Martinenc 3 6 5 +1 5
2 Montañesa 3 5 0 +5 9
3 Pobla Mafumet 3 5 3 +2 6
4 Cornellà 3 5 3 +2 5
5 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 4 5 7 -2 6
6 L'Hospitalet 3 4 2 +2 5
7 Vilanova 3 4 3 +1 5
8 San Cristóbal 3 4 4 0 4
9 Grama 3 3 3 0 4
10 Badalona 3 3 3 0 3
11 L'Escala 3 3 3 0 3
12 Atlètic Lleida 3 3 4 -1 4
13 Europa II 3 3 5 -2 2
14 Tona 4 3 6 -3 3
15 Cerdanyola del Vallès 3 2 3 -1 4
16 Peralada 3 2 3 -1 2
17 Vilassar Mar 3 2 4 -2 3
18 Mollerussa 3 1 2 -1 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions