Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 / Vilanova vs Peralada

Vilanova vs Peralada Statistics & Analysis

Vilanova Vilanova
Sep 19, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 85%
Peralada Peralada
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Peralada Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8703466

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Vilanova 1–1 Peralada
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Vilanova vs Peralada
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Vilanova 1.28 — Peralada 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Montañesa 2 2 0 0 6
2 Pobla Mafumet 3 2 0 1 6
3 Cornellà 3 1 2 0 5
4 L'Hospitalet 3 1 2 0 5
5 Martinenc 3 1 2 0 5
6 Vilanova 3 1 2 0 5
7 Grama 2 1 1 0 4
8 L'Escala 2 1 0 1 3
9 Vilassar Mar 2 1 0 1 3
10 Mollerussa 2 1 0 1 3
11 Tona 3 1 0 2 3
12 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 2 1 0 1 3
13 Peralada 3 0 2 1 2
14 Europa II 3 0 2 1 2
15 San Cristóbal 2 0 1 1 1
16 Atlètic Lleida 2 0 1 1 1
17 Cerdanyola del Vallès 2 0 1 1 1
18 Badalona 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Martinenc 3 6 5 +1 5
2 Pobla Mafumet 3 5 3 +2 6
3 Cornellà 3 5 3 +2 5
4 Montañesa 2 4 0 +4 6
5 L'Hospitalet 3 4 2 +2 5
6 Vilanova 3 4 3 +1 5
7 Grama 2 3 2 +1 4
8 L'Escala 2 3 2 +1 3
9 Europa II 3 3 5 -2 2
10 Vilassar Mar 2 2 2 0 3
11 Peralada 3 2 3 -1 2
12 San Cristóbal 2 2 3 -1 1
13 Tona 3 2 4 -2 3
14 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 2 2 4 -2 3
15 Atlètic Lleida 2 2 4 -2 1
16 Mollerussa 2 1 1 0 3
17 Cerdanyola del Vallès 2 1 3 -2 1
18 Badalona 2 1 3 -2 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions