Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 / San Ignacio vs Sodupe

Prediction Audit: San Ignacio vs Sodupe Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

San Ignacio San Ignacio
Nov 07, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sodupe Sodupe

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 San Ignacio Sodupe ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Nov 07, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Sodupe win · 0–1

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Nov 01, 2026 · 03:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-18864396

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sodupe win · San Ignacio 0–1 Sodupe
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: San Ignacio vs Sodupe
  • Kickoff: 2026-11-07 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): San Ignacio 1.36 — Sodupe 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Leioa 10 6 4 0 22
2 Aurrerá Vitoria 10 7 1 2 22
3 Deportivo Alavés III 10 5 3 2 18
4 Real Sociedad III 10 5 3 2 18
5 Derio 10 5 3 2 18
6 Durango 10 4 5 1 17
7 Aretxabaleta 10 5 2 3 17
8 Touring 10 4 3 3 15
9 Beasain 10 4 2 4 14
10 San Ignacio 10 4 2 4 14
11 Eibar III 10 4 2 4 14
12 Sodupe 10 4 2 4 14
13 Lagun Onak 10 3 2 5 11
14 R. Union B 10 2 4 4 10
15 Pasaia KE 10 3 1 6 10
16 Santurtzi 10 3 0 7 9
17 Erandio 10 2 0 8 6
18 Amurrio Club 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Leioa 10 28 12 +16 22
2 Deportivo Alavés III 10 21 10 +11 18
3 Real Sociedad III 10 20 13 +7 18
4 Beasain 10 19 13 +6 14
5 Aurrerá Vitoria 10 17 14 +3 22
6 Durango 10 16 11 +5 17
7 San Ignacio 10 16 12 +4 14
8 Eibar III 10 16 14 +2 14
9 Derio 10 15 11 +4 18
10 Pasaia KE 10 13 22 -9 10
11 Touring 10 12 10 +2 15
12 Aretxabaleta 10 12 11 +1 17
13 R. Union B 10 12 18 -6 10
14 Lagun Onak 10 11 14 -3 11
15 Erandio 10 9 17 -8 6
16 Santurtzi 10 7 13 -6 9
17 Sodupe 10 7 15 -8 14
18 Amurrio Club 10 3 24 -21 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions