Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 / Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE

Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE Statistics & Analysis

Aretxabaleta Aretxabaleta
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:30
4 1.41
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 39%
Pasaia KE Pasaia KE
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Aretxabaleta Aretxabaleta ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13222671

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aretxabaleta win · Aretxabaleta 4–2 Pasaia KE
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Aretxabaleta 1.41 — Pasaia KE 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 6 4 1 1 13
2 Leioa 6 3 3 0 12
3 Derio 6 3 3 0 12
4 Real Sociedad III 6 3 2 1 11
5 Aretxabaleta 6 3 2 1 11
6 Deportivo Alavés III 6 3 1 2 10
7 Pasaia KE 6 3 1 2 10
8 San Ignacio 6 2 2 2 8
9 Touring 6 2 2 2 8
10 Sodupe 6 2 2 2 8
11 Durango 6 1 4 1 7
12 Beasain 6 2 1 3 7
13 Lagun Onak 6 2 1 3 7
14 Erandio 6 2 0 4 6
15 Santurtzi 6 2 0 4 6
16 Eibar III 6 1 2 3 5
17 R. Union B 6 1 2 3 5
18 Amurrio Club 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Leioa 6 16 6 +10 12
2 Deportivo Alavés III 6 13 6 +7 10
3 Real Sociedad III 6 11 8 +3 11
4 Aurrerá Vitoria 6 10 8 +2 13
5 San Ignacio 6 10 8 +2 8
6 Durango 6 9 9 0 7
7 Pasaia KE 6 9 10 -1 10
8 Eibar III 6 9 10 -1 5
9 Derio 6 8 3 +5 12
10 Aretxabaleta 6 8 5 +3 11
11 Touring 6 7 6 +1 8
12 Beasain 6 7 8 -1 7
13 R. Union B 6 7 12 -5 5
14 Erandio 6 6 8 -2 6
15 Lagun Onak 6 6 9 -3 7
16 Sodupe 6 5 9 -4 8
17 Santurtzi 6 3 7 -4 6
18 Amurrio Club 6 1 13 -12 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions