Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 / Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria

Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria Statistics & Analysis

Leioa Leioa
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 35%
Aurrerá Vitoria Aurrerá Vitoria
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Leioa Leioa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13230926

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leioa win · Leioa 4–0 Aurrerá Vitoria
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Leioa vs Aurrerá Vitoria
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Leioa 1.38 — Aurrerá Vitoria 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 6 4 1 1 13
2 Leioa 6 3 3 0 12
3 Derio 6 3 3 0 12
4 Real Sociedad III 6 3 2 1 11
5 Deportivo Alavés III 6 3 1 2 10
6 Pasaia KE 5 3 1 1 10
7 San Ignacio 6 2 2 2 8
8 Touring 6 2 2 2 8
9 Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 8
10 Sodupe 6 2 2 2 8
11 Durango 6 1 4 1 7
12 Beasain 6 2 1 3 7
13 Lagun Onak 6 2 1 3 7
14 Erandio 6 2 0 4 6
15 Santurtzi 6 2 0 4 6
16 Eibar III 6 1 2 3 5
17 R. Union B 6 1 2 3 5
18 Amurrio Club 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Leioa 6 16 6 +10 12
2 Deportivo Alavés III 6 13 6 +7 10
3 Real Sociedad III 6 11 8 +3 11
4 Aurrerá Vitoria 6 10 8 +2 13
5 San Ignacio 6 10 8 +2 8
6 Durango 6 9 9 0 7
7 Eibar III 6 9 10 -1 5
8 Derio 6 8 3 +5 12
9 Pasaia KE 5 7 6 +1 10
10 Touring 6 7 6 +1 8
11 Beasain 6 7 8 -1 7
12 R. Union B 6 7 12 -5 5
13 Erandio 6 6 8 -2 6
14 Lagun Onak 6 6 9 -3 7
15 Sodupe 6 5 9 -4 8
16 Aretxabaleta 5 4 3 +1 8
17 Santurtzi 6 3 7 -4 6
18 Amurrio Club 6 1 13 -12 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions