Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 / Lagun Onak vs Aretxabaleta

Lagun Onak vs Aretxabaleta Statistics & Analysis

Lagun Onak Lagun Onak
Oct 03, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
2 1.15
xG Accuracy: 70%
Aretxabaleta Aretxabaleta
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lagun Onak Aretxabaleta ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11683632

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aretxabaleta win · Lagun Onak 1–2 Aretxabaleta
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Lagun Onak vs Aretxabaleta
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Lagun Onak 1.45 — Aretxabaleta 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 5 4 1 0 13
2 Pasaia KE 5 3 1 1 10
3 Derio 4 2 2 0 8
4 Touring 5 2 2 1 8
5 Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 8
6 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 7
7 Leioa 4 1 3 0 6
8 Durango 5 1 3 1 6
9 Erandio 5 2 0 3 6
10 Real Sociedad III 4 1 2 1 5
11 Eibar III 4 1 2 1 5
12 R. Union B 4 1 2 1 5
13 Sodupe 4 1 2 1 5
14 Deportivo Alavés III 4 1 1 2 4
15 Beasain 4 1 1 2 4
16 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 3
17 San Ignacio 4 0 2 2 2
18 Amurrio Club 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 5 10 4 +6 13
2 Durango 5 8 8 0 6
3 Touring 5 7 5 +2 8
4 Pasaia KE 5 7 6 +1 10
5 Leioa 4 7 6 +1 6
6 Real Sociedad III 4 7 6 +1 5
7 R. Union B 4 7 8 -1 5
8 Eibar III 4 6 5 +1 5
9 Deportivo Alavés III 4 6 5 +1 4
10 Erandio 5 6 6 0 6
11 Derio 4 5 2 +3 8
12 San Ignacio 4 5 7 -2 2
13 Aretxabaleta 5 4 3 +1 8
14 Lagun Onak 5 4 5 -1 7
15 Sodupe 4 3 4 -1 5
16 Beasain 4 3 4 -1 4
17 Santurtzi 5 2 7 -5 3
18 Amurrio Club 4 1 7 -6 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions