Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 / Derio vs Beasain

Derio vs Beasain Statistics & Analysis

Derio Derio
Oct 04, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
Beasain Beasain
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Beasain Derio ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11685183

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Derio win · Derio 2–0 Beasain
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Derio vs Beasain
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Derio 1.26 — Beasain 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +4.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Derio & Beasain!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 5 4 1 0 13
2 Pasaia KE 5 3 1 1 10
3 Derio 4 2 2 0 8
4 Touring 5 2 2 1 8
5 Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 8
6 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 7
7 Leioa 4 1 3 0 6
8 Durango 5 1 3 1 6
9 Erandio 5 2 0 3 6
10 Real Sociedad III 4 1 2 1 5
11 Eibar III 4 1 2 1 5
12 R. Union B 4 1 2 1 5
13 Sodupe 4 1 2 1 5
14 Deportivo Alavés III 4 1 1 2 4
15 Beasain 4 1 1 2 4
16 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 3
17 San Ignacio 4 0 2 2 2
18 Amurrio Club 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 5 10 4 +6 13
2 Durango 5 8 8 0 6
3 Touring 5 7 5 +2 8
4 Pasaia KE 5 7 6 +1 10
5 Leioa 4 7 6 +1 6
6 Real Sociedad III 4 7 6 +1 5
7 R. Union B 4 7 8 -1 5
8 Eibar III 4 6 5 +1 5
9 Deportivo Alavés III 4 6 5 +1 4
10 Erandio 5 6 6 0 6
11 Derio 4 5 2 +3 8
12 San Ignacio 4 5 7 -2 2
13 Aretxabaleta 5 4 3 +1 8
14 Lagun Onak 5 4 5 -1 7
15 Sodupe 4 3 4 -1 5
16 Beasain 4 3 4 -1 4
17 Santurtzi 5 2 7 -5 3
18 Amurrio Club 4 1 7 -6 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions