Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 / Pasaia KE vs Real Sociedad III

Pasaia KE vs Real Sociedad III Statistics & Analysis

Pasaia KE Pasaia KE
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:30
3 1.08
2 1.52
xG Accuracy: 52%
Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Real Sociedad III Pasaia KE ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8695548

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pasaia KE win · Pasaia KE 3–2 Real Sociedad III
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Pasaia KE vs Real Sociedad III
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.4% · Draw 28.8% · Away 45.8%
  • xG (showing): Pasaia KE 1.08 — Real Sociedad III 1.52 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 4 3 1 0 10
2 Derio 4 2 2 0 8
3 Touring 4 2 1 1 7
4 Leioa 4 1 3 0 6
5 Erandio 4 2 0 2 6
6 Eibar III 4 1 2 1 5
7 Durango 4 1 2 1 5
8 Aretxabaleta 4 1 2 1 5
9 Sodupe 4 1 2 1 5
10 Deportivo Alavés III 4 1 1 2 4
11 Real Sociedad III 3 1 1 1 4
12 Pasaia KE 3 1 1 1 4
13 R. Union B 3 1 1 1 4
14 Beasain 4 1 1 2 4
15 Lagun Onak 3 1 1 1 4
16 Santurtzi 3 1 0 2 3
17 San Ignacio 3 0 2 1 2
18 Amurrio Club 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 4 8 3 +5 10
2 Leioa 4 7 6 +1 6
3 Eibar III 4 6 5 +1 5
4 Deportivo Alavés III 4 6 5 +1 4
5 Durango 4 6 6 0 5
6 Derio 4 5 2 +3 8
7 Touring 4 5 3 +2 7
8 Erandio 4 5 4 +1 6
9 Real Sociedad III 3 4 3 +1 4
10 Pasaia KE 3 4 5 -1 4
11 R. Union B 3 4 5 -1 4
12 San Ignacio 3 4 5 -1 2
13 Sodupe 4 3 4 -1 5
14 Beasain 4 3 4 -1 4
15 Aretxabaleta 4 2 2 0 5
16 Lagun Onak 3 2 3 -1 4
17 Santurtzi 3 2 5 -3 3
18 Amurrio Club 4 1 7 -6 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions