Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 / Atlético Albericia vs Castro

Atlético Albericia vs Castro Statistics & Analysis

Atlético Albericia Atlético Albericia
Oct 10, 2026 - 18:15
4 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 39%
Castro Castro
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atlético Albericia Atlético Albericia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13244562

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlético Albericia win · Atlético Albericia 4–2 Castro
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Atlético Albericia vs Castro
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Albericia 1.34 — Castro 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tropezón 6 6 0 0 18
2 Bezana 6 5 1 0 16
3 Laredo 6 5 0 1 15
4 Sámano 6 3 2 1 11
5 Revilla 6 3 2 1 11
6 Cayón 5 3 1 1 10
7 Vimenor 6 3 1 2 10
8 Torina 5 2 3 0 9
9 Selaya 5 2 1 2 7
10 Atlético Mineros 6 2 0 4 6
11 Guarnizo 6 1 2 3 5
12 Solares 6 1 2 3 5
13 Castro 6 1 2 3 5
14 Escobedo 6 1 2 3 5
15 Atlético Albericia 6 1 1 4 4
16 Velarde 6 1 1 4 4
17 Naval Reinosa 6 0 2 4 2
18 Barquereño 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Laredo 6 14 2 +12 15
2 Sámano 6 14 6 +8 11
3 Tropezón 6 13 3 +10 18
4 Revilla 6 13 8 +5 11
5 Bezana 6 12 4 +8 16
6 Torina 5 8 2 +6 9
7 Vimenor 6 7 5 +2 10
8 Guarnizo 6 7 10 -3 5
9 Atlético Albericia 6 7 11 -4 4
10 Castro 6 6 10 -4 5
11 Naval Reinosa 6 6 15 -9 2
12 Cayón 5 5 2 +3 10
13 Selaya 5 5 7 -2 7
14 Solares 6 5 8 -3 5
15 Escobedo 6 5 10 -5 5
16 Atlético Mineros 6 5 13 -8 6
17 Velarde 6 3 10 -7 4
18 Barquereño 5 2 11 -9 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions