Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 / Revilla vs Atlético Albericia

Revilla vs Atlético Albericia Statistics & Analysis

Revilla Revilla
Oct 03, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.18
2 1.42
xG Accuracy: 68%
Atlético Albericia Atlético Albericia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atlético Albericia Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11659557

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Revilla 2–2 Atlético Albericia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Revilla vs Atlético Albericia
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Revilla 1.18 — Atlético Albericia 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bezana 5 5 0 0 15
2 Laredo 5 4 0 1 12
3 Tropezón 4 4 0 0 12
4 Vimenor 5 3 1 1 10
5 Cayón 5 3 1 1 10
6 Torina 5 2 3 0 9
7 Sámano 5 2 2 1 8
8 Revilla 5 2 2 1 8
9 Atlético Mineros 5 2 0 3 6
10 Castro 4 1 2 1 5
11 Escobedo 5 1 2 2 5
12 Guarnizo 5 1 1 3 4
13 Solares 5 1 1 3 4
14 Selaya 4 1 1 2 4
15 Velarde 5 1 1 3 4
16 Atlético Albericia 5 0 1 4 1
17 Naval Reinosa 4 0 1 3 1
18 Barquereño 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Laredo 5 12 2 +10 12
2 Sámano 5 12 6 +6 8
3 Bezana 5 11 3 +8 15
4 Revilla 5 10 6 +4 8
5 Tropezón 4 9 2 +7 12
6 Torina 5 8 2 +6 9
7 Vimenor 5 7 3 +4 10
8 Guarnizo 5 6 9 -3 4
9 Cayón 5 5 2 +3 10
10 Castro 4 4 4 0 5
11 Atlético Mineros 5 4 11 -7 6
12 Solares 5 3 6 -3 4
13 Escobedo 5 3 7 -4 5
14 Velarde 5 3 8 -5 4
15 Atlético Albericia 5 3 9 -6 1
16 Selaya 4 2 5 -3 4
17 Naval Reinosa 4 2 10 -8 1
18 Barquereño 5 2 11 -9 1