Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 / Gijón Industrial vs Astur

Gijón Industrial vs Astur Statistics & Analysis

Gijón Industrial Gijón Industrial
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 68%
Astur Astur
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Astur Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13191879

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Gijón Industrial 2–2 Astur
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Gijón Industrial vs Astur
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Gijón Industrial 1.29 — Astur 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 49.1% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Covadonga 5 4 1 0 13
2 Sporting Gijón II 5 4 1 0 13
3 Mosconia 6 3 3 0 12
4 Siero 6 4 0 2 12
5 Condal 5 3 2 0 11
6 Colunga 6 3 2 1 11
7 Caudal 5 3 1 1 10
8 Lealtad 6 3 1 2 10
9 Langreo 6 2 2 2 8
10 Gijón Industrial 5 2 1 2 7
11 Praviano 6 1 2 3 5
12 San Martín 5 1 2 2 5
13 Ceares 6 1 1 4 4
14 L'Entregu 6 1 1 4 4
15 Llanes 5 0 3 2 3
16 Avilés Stadium 5 1 0 4 3
17 Astur 5 0 2 3 2
18 Andes 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Covadonga 5 14 4 +10 13
2 Colunga 6 14 12 +2 11
3 Praviano 6 11 13 -2 5
4 Mosconia 6 10 3 +7 12
5 Langreo 6 10 9 +1 8
6 Siero 6 9 3 +6 12
7 Sporting Gijón II 5 9 4 +5 13
8 Ceares 6 9 13 -4 4
9 Condal 5 8 2 +6 11
10 Caudal 5 8 6 +2 10
11 Gijón Industrial 5 8 6 +2 7
12 Lealtad 6 6 4 +2 10
13 Llanes 5 6 12 -6 3
14 San Martín 5 5 10 -5 5
15 Astur 5 3 8 -5 2
16 L'Entregu 6 2 9 -7 4
17 Avilés Stadium 5 2 9 -7 3
18 Andes 5 2 9 -7 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions