Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 / Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II

Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II Statistics & Analysis

Caudal Caudal
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.18
1 1.42
xG Accuracy: 85%
Sporting Gijón II Sporting Gijón II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sporting Gijón II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13191809

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Caudal 1–1 Sporting Gijón II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Caudal 1.18 — Sporting Gijón II 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Covadonga 5 4 1 0 13
2 Sporting Gijón II 5 4 1 0 13
3 Mosconia 6 3 3 0 12
4 Siero 6 4 0 2 12
5 Condal 5 3 2 0 11
6 Colunga 6 3 2 1 11
7 Caudal 5 3 1 1 10
8 Lealtad 6 3 1 2 10
9 Langreo 6 2 2 2 8
10 Gijón Industrial 5 2 1 2 7
11 Praviano 6 1 2 3 5
12 San Martín 5 1 2 2 5
13 Ceares 6 1 1 4 4
14 L'Entregu 6 1 1 4 4
15 Llanes 5 0 3 2 3
16 Avilés Stadium 5 1 0 4 3
17 Astur 5 0 2 3 2
18 Andes 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Covadonga 5 14 4 +10 13
2 Colunga 6 14 12 +2 11
3 Praviano 6 11 13 -2 5
4 Mosconia 6 10 3 +7 12
5 Langreo 6 10 9 +1 8
6 Siero 6 9 3 +6 12
7 Sporting Gijón II 5 9 4 +5 13
8 Ceares 6 9 13 -4 4
9 Condal 5 8 2 +6 11
10 Caudal 5 8 6 +2 10
11 Gijón Industrial 5 8 6 +2 7
12 Lealtad 6 6 4 +2 10
13 Llanes 5 6 12 -6 3
14 San Martín 5 5 10 -5 5
15 Astur 5 3 8 -5 2
16 L'Entregu 6 2 9 -7 4
17 Avilés Stadium 5 2 9 -7 3
18 Andes 5 2 9 -7 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions