Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 / Ceares vs Colunga

Ceares vs Colunga Statistics & Analysis

Ceares Ceares
Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.37
4 1.23
xG Accuracy: 30%
Colunga Colunga
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ceares Colunga ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8685468

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Colunga win · Ceares 3–4 Colunga
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Ceares vs Colunga
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Ceares 1.37 — Colunga 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mosconia 2 2 0 0 6
2 Condal 2 2 0 0 6
3 Caudal 2 2 0 0 6
4 Sporting Gijón II 2 2 0 0 6
5 Colunga 2 2 0 0 6
6 Covadonga 2 1 1 0 4
7 Siero 2 1 0 1 3
8 Praviano 2 1 0 1 3
9 Ceares 2 1 0 1 3
10 Lealtad 2 1 0 1 3
11 Gijón Industrial 2 1 0 1 3
12 L'Entregu 2 1 0 1 3
13 Langreo 2 0 1 1 1
14 Andes 2 0 0 2 0
15 Astur 2 0 0 2 0
16 Avilés Stadium 2 0 0 2 0
17 Llanes 2 0 0 2 0
18 San Martín 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mosconia 2 7 1 +6 6
2 Covadonga 2 6 2 +4 4
3 Condal 2 5 0 +5 6
4 Caudal 2 5 1 +4 6
5 Sporting Gijón II 2 5 2 +3 6
6 Colunga 2 4 2 +2 6
7 Praviano 2 3 3 0 3
8 Ceares 2 3 3 0 3
9 Langreo 2 3 4 -1 1
10 Siero 2 2 1 +1 3
11 Lealtad 2 2 2 0 3
12 Gijón Industrial 2 2 2 0 3
13 Llanes 2 2 8 -6 0
14 L'Entregu 2 1 1 0 3
15 Andes 2 1 4 -3 0
16 Astur 2 1 5 -4 0
17 Avilés Stadium 2 0 5 -5 0
18 San Martín 2 0 6 -6 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions