Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 / Colunga vs Astur

Colunga vs Astur Statistics & Analysis

Colunga Colunga
Sep 13, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 72%
Astur Astur
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Astur Colunga ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7423986

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Colunga win · Colunga 2–1 Astur
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Colunga vs Astur
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Colunga 1.21 — Astur 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Colunga & Astur!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mosconia 1 1 0 0 3
2 Covadonga 1 1 0 0 3
3 Caudal 1 1 0 0 3
4 Gijón Industrial 1 1 0 0 3
5 Sporting Gijón II 1 1 0 0 3
6 Ceares 1 1 0 0 3
7 Colunga 1 1 0 0 3
8 Condal 1 1 0 0 3
9 Praviano 2 1 0 1 3
10 Lealtad 2 1 0 1 3
11 Langreo 1 0 0 1 0
12 Andes 1 0 0 1 0
13 L'Entregu 1 0 0 1 0
14 Siero 1 0 0 1 0
15 San Martín 1 0 0 1 0
16 Astur 1 0 0 1 0
17 Llanes 1 0 0 1 0
18 Avilés Stadium 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mosconia 1 5 1 +4 3
2 Covadonga 1 4 0 +4 3
3 Caudal 1 3 0 +3 3
4 Praviano 2 3 3 0 3
5 Gijón Industrial 1 2 0 +2 3
6 Sporting Gijón II 1 2 1 +1 3
7 Ceares 1 2 1 +1 3
8 Colunga 1 2 1 +1 3
9 Lealtad 2 2 2 0 3
10 Condal 1 1 0 +1 3
11 Langreo 1 1 2 -1 0
12 Andes 1 1 2 -1 0
13 Llanes 1 1 5 -4 0
14 L'Entregu 1 0 1 -1 0
15 Siero 1 0 1 -1 0
16 San Martín 1 0 2 -2 0
17 Astur 1 0 3 -3 0
18 Avilés Stadium 1 0 4 -4 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions