Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 / Caudal vs Ceares

Caudal vs Ceares Statistics & Analysis

Caudal Caudal
Sep 13, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.47
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 83%
Ceares Ceares
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Caudal Caudal ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7451937

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Caudal win · Caudal 2–1 Ceares
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2
  • Fixture: Caudal vs Ceares
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): Caudal 1.47 — Ceares 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Covadonga 4 3 1 0 10
2 Mosconia 4 3 1 0 10
3 Sporting Gijón II 3 3 0 0 9
4 Siero 4 3 0 1 9
5 Colunga 4 3 0 1 9
6 Caudal 4 3 0 1 9
7 Condal 3 2 1 0 7
8 Langreo 3 1 1 1 4
9 Gijón Industrial 3 1 1 1 4
10 Praviano 3 1 0 2 3
11 Lealtad 3 1 0 2 3
12 Ceares 4 1 0 3 3
13 L'Entregu 4 1 0 3 3
14 Avilés Stadium 3 1 0 2 3
15 Andes 4 0 1 3 1
16 Llanes 3 0 1 2 1
17 San Martín 3 0 1 2 1
18 Astur 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Covadonga 4 12 3 +9 10
2 Colunga 4 9 7 +2 9
3 Mosconia 4 8 1 +7 10
4 Caudal 4 7 5 +2 9
5 Sporting Gijón II 3 6 2 +4 9
6 Langreo 3 6 5 +1 4
7 Ceares 4 6 9 -3 3
8 Condal 3 5 0 +5 7
9 Siero 4 5 1 +4 9
10 Gijón Industrial 3 4 4 0 4
11 Llanes 3 4 10 -6 1
12 Praviano 3 3 4 -1 3
13 Lealtad 3 2 3 -1 3
14 L'Entregu 4 2 6 -4 3
15 Andes 4 2 6 -4 1
16 Avilés Stadium 3 1 5 -4 3
17 Astur 3 1 6 -5 0
18 San Martín 3 1 7 -6 1
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions