Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 / Pontevedra II vs Portonovo SD

Pontevedra II vs Portonovo SD Statistics & Analysis

Pontevedra II Pontevedra II
Oct 10, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
Portonovo SD
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pontevedra II Portonovo SD ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13221560

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Portonovo SD win · Pontevedra II 0–1 Portonovo SD
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Pontevedra II vs Portonovo SD
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Pontevedra II 1.32 — Portonovo SD 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boiro 5 3 1 1 10
2 Portonovo SD 6 3 1 2 10
3 Barco 5 3 1 1 10
4 Lalin 5 3 1 1 10
5 Antela 5 3 1 1 10
6 Sarriana 5 3 0 2 9
7 Villalbés 5 2 3 0 9
8 Alondras 5 3 0 2 9
9 Pontevedra II 6 2 1 3 7
10 Celta de Vigo III 5 2 1 2 7
11 Estradense 5 2 1 2 7
12 Somozas 6 1 3 2 6
13 Atlético Arteixo 6 1 3 2 6
14 Celtiga 5 1 2 2 5
15 Silva 5 1 2 2 5
16 Viveiro 5 1 1 3 4
17 Arenteiro 5 1 0 4 3
18 Coruña 5 1 0 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boiro 5 10 6 +4 10
2 Alondras 5 10 9 +1 9
3 Sarriana 5 9 7 +2 9
4 Pontevedra II 6 9 7 +2 7
5 Portonovo SD 6 8 6 +2 10
6 Celta de Vigo III 5 8 8 0 7
7 Estradense 5 8 9 -1 7
8 Atlético Arteixo 6 8 10 -2 6
9 Villalbés 5 7 5 +2 9
10 Coruña 5 7 11 -4 3
11 Barco 5 6 4 +2 10
12 Lalin 5 5 3 +2 10
13 Antela 5 5 4 +1 10
14 Somozas 6 5 6 -1 6
15 Celtiga 5 5 6 -1 5
16 Silva 5 5 8 -3 5
17 Arenteiro 5 4 7 -3 3
18 Viveiro 5 2 5 -3 4
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions