Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 / Estradense vs Boiro

Estradense vs Boiro Statistics & Analysis

Estradense Estradense
Oct 04, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
Boiro Boiro
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Boiro Estradense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11683379

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Estradense win · Estradense 3–2 Boiro
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Estradense vs Boiro
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Estradense 1.28 — Boiro 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.1% · Probability edge: +6.1 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boiro 4 3 1 0 10
2 Antela 5 3 1 1 10
3 Sarriana 4 3 0 1 9
4 Villalbés 5 2 3 0 9
5 Alondras 5 3 0 2 9
6 Pontevedra II 4 2 1 1 7
7 Portonovo SD 4 2 1 1 7
8 Barco 4 2 1 1 7
9 Lalin 4 2 1 1 7
10 Atlético Arteixo 4 1 2 1 5
11 Silva 5 1 2 2 5
12 Celtiga 4 1 1 2 4
13 Celta de Vigo III 4 1 1 2 4
14 Estradense 4 1 1 2 4
15 Arenteiro 5 1 0 4 3
16 Viveiro 4 1 0 3 3
17 Coruña 5 1 0 4 3
18 Somozas 4 0 2 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Alondras 5 10 9 +1 9
2 Pontevedra II 4 9 5 +4 7
3 Boiro 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Sarriana 4 8 5 +3 9
5 Villalbés 5 7 5 +2 9
6 Portonovo SD 4 7 5 +2 7
7 Coruña 5 7 11 -4 3
8 Antela 5 5 4 +1 10
9 Barco 4 5 4 +1 7
10 Celtiga 4 5 6 -1 4
11 Celta de Vigo III 4 5 6 -1 4
12 Estradense 4 5 7 -2 4
13 Silva 5 5 8 -3 5
14 Lalin 4 4 3 +1 7
15 Atlético Arteixo 4 4 5 -1 5
16 Arenteiro 5 4 7 -3 3
17 Viveiro 4 2 5 -3 3
18 Somozas 4 1 3 -2 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions