Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 / Barco vs Pontevedra II

Barco vs Pontevedra II Statistics & Analysis

Barco Barco
Oct 04, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 64%
Pontevedra II Pontevedra II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Barco Barco ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11683329

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Barco win · Barco 1–0 Pontevedra II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Barco vs Pontevedra II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Barco 1.31 — Pontevedra II 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boiro 4 3 1 0 10
2 Antela 5 3 1 1 10
3 Sarriana 4 3 0 1 9
4 Villalbés 5 2 3 0 9
5 Alondras 5 3 0 2 9
6 Pontevedra II 4 2 1 1 7
7 Portonovo SD 4 2 1 1 7
8 Barco 4 2 1 1 7
9 Lalin 4 2 1 1 7
10 Atlético Arteixo 4 1 2 1 5
11 Silva 5 1 2 2 5
12 Celtiga 4 1 1 2 4
13 Celta de Vigo III 4 1 1 2 4
14 Estradense 4 1 1 2 4
15 Arenteiro 5 1 0 4 3
16 Viveiro 4 1 0 3 3
17 Coruña 5 1 0 4 3
18 Somozas 4 0 2 2 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Alondras 5 10 9 +1 9
2 Pontevedra II 4 9 5 +4 7
3 Boiro 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Sarriana 4 8 5 +3 9
5 Villalbés 5 7 5 +2 9
6 Portonovo SD 4 7 5 +2 7
7 Coruña 5 7 11 -4 3
8 Antela 5 5 4 +1 10
9 Barco 4 5 4 +1 7
10 Celtiga 4 5 6 -1 4
11 Celta de Vigo III 4 5 6 -1 4
12 Estradense 4 5 7 -2 4
13 Silva 5 5 8 -3 5
14 Lalin 4 4 3 +1 7
15 Atlético Arteixo 4 4 5 -1 5
16 Arenteiro 5 4 7 -3 3
17 Viveiro 4 2 5 -3 3
18 Somozas 4 1 3 -2 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions