Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 / Pontevedra II vs Arenteiro

Pontevedra II vs Arenteiro Statistics & Analysis

Pontevedra II Pontevedra II
Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Arenteiro Arenteiro
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pontevedra II Pontevedra II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10099259

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pontevedra II win · Pontevedra II 1–0 Arenteiro
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Pontevedra II vs Arenteiro
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Pontevedra II 1.32 — Arenteiro 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boiro 3 3 0 0 9
2 Sarriana 4 3 0 1 9
3 Alondras 4 3 0 1 9
4 Villalbés 3 2 1 0 7
5 Antela 4 2 1 1 7
6 Barco 3 2 0 1 6
7 Lalin 3 2 0 1 6
8 Atlético Arteixo 4 1 2 1 5
9 Pontevedra II 3 1 1 1 4
10 Estradense 3 1 1 1 4
11 Portonovo SD 3 1 1 1 4
12 Celta de Vigo III 4 1 1 2 4
13 Silva 3 1 1 1 4
14 Arenteiro 3 1 0 2 3
15 Somozas 4 0 2 2 2
16 Celtiga 3 0 1 2 1
17 Coruña 3 0 0 3 0
18 Viveiro 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Alondras 4 10 8 +2 9
2 Sarriana 4 8 5 +3 9
3 Pontevedra II 3 8 5 +3 4
4 Boiro 3 7 2 +5 9
5 Villalbés 3 6 4 +2 7
6 Estradense 3 5 5 0 4
7 Celta de Vigo III 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Coruña 3 5 9 -4 0
9 Barco 3 4 3 +1 6
10 Atlético Arteixo 4 4 5 -1 5
11 Lalin 3 3 2 +1 6
12 Portonovo SD 3 3 3 0 4
13 Silva 3 3 4 -1 4
14 Celtiga 3 3 6 -3 1
15 Antela 4 2 2 0 7
16 Arenteiro 3 2 3 -1 3
17 Somozas 4 1 3 -2 2
18 Viveiro 3 0 4 -4 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions