Crystal Palace W vs Charlton Athletic W Statistics & Analysis

Crystal Palace W

Sep 30, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 45%

Charlton Athletic W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Crystal Palace W Crystal Palace W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10588148

Closing Odds 1.71

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Crystal Palace W win · Crystal Palace W 3–0 Charlton Athletic W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Charlton Athletic W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Charlton Athletic W (1X2) by about 10.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Crystal Palace W (1X2)	38.0	52.9	-14.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.5	+4.1
Charlton Athletic W (1X2)	32.4	21.6	+10.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	52.5	-4.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	47.5	+4.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.4% on Charlton Athletic W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.6%. The difference — about 10.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Crystal Palace W (1X2)	1.71	1.71
Draw (1X2)	3.55	3.55
Charlton Athletic W (1X2)	4.18	4.18
Over 2.5 goals	1.79	1.79
Under 2.5 goals	1.98	1.98

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: WSL Cup
Fixture: Crystal Palace W vs Charlton Athletic W
Kickoff: 2026-09-30 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Crystal Palace W 1.36 — Charlton Athletic W 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.9% · Probability edge: +5.0 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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