Nottingham Forest W vs Aston Villa W Statistics & Analysis

Nottingham Forest W

Sep 23, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.29

2 1.31

xG Accuracy: 58%

Aston Villa W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Aston Villa W Aston Villa W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9166967

Closing Odds 1.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Aston Villa W win · Nottingham Forest W 0–2 Aston Villa W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Nottingham Forest W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Nottingham Forest W (1X2) by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Nottingham Forest W (1X2)	34.7	22.1	+12.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	24.4	+5.3
Aston Villa W (1X2)	35.6	53.5	-17.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.3	-12.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.7	+12.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Nottingham Forest W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.1%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Nottingham Forest W (1X2)	4.08	4.08
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.7
Aston Villa W (1X2)	1.69	1.69
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.32	2.32

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: WSL Cup
Fixture: Nottingham Forest W vs Aston Villa W
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Nottingham Forest W 1.29 — Aston Villa W 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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