Liverpool W vs Sunderland W Statistics & Analysis

Liverpool W

Sep 23, 2026 - 18:00

4 1.42

2 1.18

xG Accuracy: 39%

Sunderland W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Liverpool W Liverpool W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9166885

Closing Odds 1.22

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Liverpool W win · Liverpool W 4–2 Sunderland W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.61 percentage points on Liverpool W (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sunderland W (1X2) by about 20.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Liverpool W (1X2)	41.0	75.1	-34.1
Draw (1X2)	29.4	15.3	+14.1
Sunderland W (1X2)	29.6	9.6	+20.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	66.3	-18.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	33.7	+18.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Sunderland W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.6%. The difference — about 20.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Liverpool W (1X2)	1.21	1.22	+0.6
Draw (1X2)	5.78	5.98	-0.3
Sunderland W (1X2)	9.05	9.52	-0.3
Over 2.5 goals	1.39	1.39	0.0
Under 2.5 goals	2.73	2.73	0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Liverpool W; market prices Liverpool W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Liverpool W 1.42 xG vs Sunderland W 1.18 → Liverpool W 40.9%
Market: Liverpool W ~75.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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