Everton W vs Birmingham City W Statistics & Analysis

Everton W

Sep 23, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.31

0 1.29

xG Accuracy: 58%

Birmingham City W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Everton W Everton W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9166822

Closing Odds 1.93

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Everton W win · Everton W 2–0 Birmingham City W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Birmingham City W (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Birmingham City W (1X2) by about 6.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Everton W (1X2)	35.6	47.4	-11.8
Draw (1X2)	29.7	24.6	+5.1
Birmingham City W (1X2)	34.7	28.1	+6.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.3	-0.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.7	+0.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Birmingham City W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.1%. The difference — about 6.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Everton W (1X2)	1.9	1.93	-0.2
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.72	+0.1
Birmingham City W (1X2)	3.24	3.26	+0.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.93	1.96	-0.2
Under 2.5 goals	1.82	1.83	+0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: WSL Cup
Fixture: Everton W vs Birmingham City W
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Everton W 1.31 — Birmingham City W 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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