Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Copa Paraguay / Deportivo Obrero vs Fernando De La Mora

Deportivo Obrero vs Fernando De La Mora Statistics & Analysis

Deportivo Obrero Deportivo Obrero
Aug 19, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.36
3 1.24
xG Accuracy: 42%
Fernando De La Mora Fernando De La Mora
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Deportivo Obrero Fernando De La Mora ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3820475

Closing Odds 1.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fernando De La Mora win · Deportivo Obrero 0–3 Fernando De La Mora
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Deportivo Obrero (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Deportivo Obrero (1X2) by about 30.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Deportivo Obrero (1X2) 38.0 7.8 +30.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 11.2 +18.4
Fernando De La Mora (1X2) 32.4 81.0 -48.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 38.0% on Deportivo Obrero (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.8%. The difference — about 30.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Deportivo Obrero (1X2) 11.36 11.36 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.95 7.95 0.0
Fernando De La Mora (1X2) 1.1 1.1 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Deportivo Obrero; market prices Fernando De La Mora instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Deportivo Obrero 1.36 xG vs Fernando De La Mora 1.24 → Deportivo Obrero 38.0%
  • Market: Fernando De La Mora ~7.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Deportivo Obrero & Fernando De La Mora!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Copa Paraguay Paraguay. Copa Paraguay Predictions