Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Primera División / Monagas SC vs Carabobo FC

Monagas SC vs Carabobo FC Statistics & Analysis

Monagas SC Monagas SC
Aug 08, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.18
0 1.42
xG Accuracy: 64%
Carabobo FC Carabobo FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Carabobo FC Monagas SC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3232285

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Monagas SC win · Monagas SC 1–0 Carabobo FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Monagas SC (1X2), Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Monagas SC (1X2) by about 6.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Monagas SC (1X2) 29.6 23.5 +6.2
Draw (1X2) 29.4 27.9 +1.5
Carabobo FC (1X2) 41.0 48.6 -7.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.2 +4.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.8 -4.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Monagas SC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.5%. The difference — about 6.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Monagas SC (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.27 3.27 0.0
Carabobo FC (1X2) 1.88 1.88 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.12 2.12 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Monagas SC vs Carabobo FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Monagas SC 1.18 — Carabobo FC 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 48.7% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +3.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 16 5 3 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 14 5 5 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 12 7 5 43
4 UCV 24 11 5 8 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 9 10 5 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 9 10 5 37
7 Puerto Cabello 24 9 9 6 36
8 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 10 6 8 36
9 Caracas FC 24 5 11 8 26
10 Monagas SC 24 7 4 13 25
11 Zamora FC 24 6 7 11 25
12 Rayo Zuliano 24 7 4 13 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 3 6 15 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 41 19 +22 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 41 26 +15 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 36 22 +14 43
4 UCV 24 36 31 +5 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 35 22 +13 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 34 24 +10 37
7 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 33 30 +3 36
8 Puerto Cabello 24 31 23 +8 36
9 Rayo Zuliano 24 30 46 -16 25
10 Monagas SC 24 26 35 -9 25
11 Caracas FC 24 24 31 -7 26
12 Zamora FC 24 24 35 -11 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 21 44 -23 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 21 45 -24 14