Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Segunda División / Atletico el Vigia FC vs Puerto Cabello II

Atletico el Vigia FC vs Puerto Cabello II Statistics & Analysis

Atletico el Vigia FC Atletico el Vigia FC
Aug 09, 2026 - 19:30
0 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 49%
Puerto Cabello II Puerto Cabello II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atletico el Vigia FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 00:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3149240

Closing Odds 2.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Atletico el Vigia FC 0–0 Puerto Cabello II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.5 percentage points on Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2) by about 6.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2) 39.0 32.6 +6.4
Draw (1X2) 29.5 28.5 +1.1
Puerto Cabello II (1X2) 31.5 38.9 -7.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 47.7 +0.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 52.3 -0.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.0% on Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.6%. The difference — about 6.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Atletico el Vigia FC (1X2) 2.62 2.76 -1.5
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.16 +1.4
Puerto Cabello II (1X2) 2.3 2.31 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 1.96 -0.9
Under 2.5 goals 1.85 1.79 +0.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Atletico el Vigia FC vs Puerto Cabello II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Atletico el Vigia FC 1.38 — Puerto Cabello II 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Lara 27 18 6 3 60
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 14 8 5 50
3 Urena SC 28 12 9 7 45
4 Yaracuyanos FC 27 11 7 9 40
5 Zamora FC B 27 11 7 9 40
6 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 9 7 12 34
7 Puerto Cabello II 28 8 7 13 31
8 Club Atletico Barinas 28 9 4 15 31
9 Real Frontera 28 3 3 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Club Atletico Barinas 28 49 59 -10 31
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 48 27 +21 50
3 Deportivo Lara 27 46 20 +26 60
4 Zamora FC B 27 42 36 +6 40
5 Urena SC 28 41 34 +7 45
6 Puerto Cabello II 28 36 40 -4 31
7 Yaracuyanos FC 27 34 27 +7 40
8 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 32 45 -13 34
9 Real Frontera 28 22 62 -40 12
Segunda División Venezuela. Segunda División Predictions