Statistics / Football / Venezuela. Segunda División / Urena SC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva

Urena SC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva Statistics & Analysis

Urena SC Urena SC
Aug 09, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.18
1 1.42
xG Accuracy: 85%
Fundación Lara Deportiva Fundación Lara Deportiva
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fundación Lara Deportiva Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 00:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3149223

Closing Odds 2.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Urena SC 1–1 Fundación Lara Deportiva
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 8.66 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2) by about 10.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Urena SC (1X2) 29.6 33.2 -3.6
Draw (1X2) 29.4 36.6 -7.2
Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2) 41.0 30.1 +10.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 42.0 +6.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.0 -6.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 41.0% on Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 30.1%. The difference — about 10.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Urena SC (1X2) 2.3 2.71 -5.7
Draw (1X2) 3.2 2.46 +8.7
Fundación Lara Deportiva (1X2) 2.7 2.99 -3.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.08 2.21 -3.4
Under 2.5 goals 1.73 1.6 +3.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Urena SC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Urena SC 1.18 — Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.4% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +6.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Lara 27 18 6 3 60
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 14 8 5 50
3 Urena SC 28 12 9 7 45
4 Yaracuyanos FC 27 11 7 9 40
5 Zamora FC B 27 11 7 9 40
6 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 9 7 12 34
7 Puerto Cabello II 28 8 7 13 31
8 Club Atletico Barinas 28 9 4 15 31
9 Real Frontera 28 3 3 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Club Atletico Barinas 28 49 59 -10 31
2 Fundación Lara Deportiva 27 48 27 +21 50
3 Deportivo Lara 27 46 20 +26 60
4 Zamora FC B 27 42 36 +6 40
5 Urena SC 28 41 34 +7 45
6 Puerto Cabello II 28 36 40 -4 31
7 Yaracuyanos FC 27 34 27 +7 40
8 Atletico el Vigia FC 28 32 45 -13 34
9 Real Frontera 28 22 62 -40 12
Segunda División Venezuela. Segunda División Predictions