SFK 2000 vs Racing W Statistics & Analysis

SFK 2000

Aug 08, 2026 - 11:00

4 1.36

1 1.24

xG Accuracy: 45%

Racing W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 SFK 2000 SFK 2000 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3152575

Closing Odds 1.81

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result SFK 2000 win · SFK 2000 4–1 Racing W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Racing W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
SFK 2000 (1X2)	38.0	49.0	-11.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.5	+7.1
Racing W (1X2)	32.4	28.4	+3.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	61.3	-13.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.7	+13.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.7%. The difference — about 13.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
SFK 2000 (1X2)	1.81	1.81
Draw (1X2)	3.94	3.94
Racing W (1X2)	3.12	3.12
Over 2.5 goals	1.49	1.49
Under 2.5 goals	2.36	2.36

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: UEFA Champions League Women
Fixture: SFK 2000 vs Racing W
Kickoff: 2026-08-08 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): SFK 2000 1.36 — Racing W 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.8% · Probability edge: +14.0 pts · Est. EV: +35.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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