Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana Statistics & Analysis

Tre Penne

Sep 08, 2026 - 18:45

2 1.42

1 1.18

xG Accuracy: 81%

Juvenes / Dogana

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Tre Penne Tre Penne ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6582034

Closing Odds 1.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tre Penne win · Tre Penne 2–1 Juvenes / Dogana

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Juvenes / Dogana (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Juvenes / Dogana (1X2) by about 10.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tre Penne (1X2)	41.0	56.2	-15.2
Draw (1X2)	29.4	24.8	+4.6
Juvenes / Dogana (1X2)	29.6	19.0	+10.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.9	-0.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.1	+0.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Juvenes / Dogana (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.0%. The difference — about 10.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Tre Penne (1X2)	1.6	1.6
Draw (1X2)	3.62	3.62
Juvenes / Dogana (1X2)	4.73	4.73
Over 2.5 goals	1.91	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	1.83	1.83

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Coppa Titano
Fixture: Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana
Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Tre Penne 1.42 — Juvenes / Dogana 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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