Statistics / Football / Egypt. Premier League / Asyut Petrol vs National Bank of Egypt

Asyut Petrol vs National Bank of Egypt Statistics & Analysis

Asyut Petrol Asyut Petrol
Aug 31, 2026 - 14:00
0 0.94
1 0.99
xG Accuracy: 77%
National Bank of Egypt National Bank of Egypt
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 National Bank of Egypt National Bank of Egypt ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5402208

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result National Bank of Egypt win · Asyut Petrol 0–1 National Bank of Egypt
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Asyut Petrol (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Asyut Petrol (1X2) by about 10.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Asyut Petrol (1X2) 28.9 18.6 +10.3
Draw (1X2) 34.9 30.3 +4.6
National Bank of Egypt (1X2) 36.3 51.1 -14.9
Over 2.5 goals 30.4 33.6 -3.2
Under 2.5 goals 69.6 66.3 +3.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.9% on Asyut Petrol (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.6%. The difference — about 10.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
Asyut Petrol (1X2) 5.13 5.13 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.14 3.14 0.0
National Bank of Egypt (1X2) 1.86 1.86 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.82 2.82 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.43 1.43 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Asyut Petrol vs National Bank of Egypt
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 34.9% · Away 36.3%
  • xG (showing): Asyut Petrol 0.94 — National Bank of Egypt 0.99 (total xG ≈ 1.93)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 40.1% · Implied: 38.7% · Probability edge: +1.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 5 0 0 15
2 Zamalek SC 5 4 1 0 13
3 Al Ahly 5 4 1 0 13
4 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 4 0 1 12
5 Future FC 5 3 1 1 10
6 Al Ittihad 5 3 1 1 10
7 El Mokawloon 5 2 1 2 7
8 Petrojet 5 2 1 2 7
9 El Geish 5 2 1 2 7
10 Masr 5 2 1 2 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 1 3 1 6
12 AL Masry 5 2 0 3 6
13 National Bank of Egypt 5 2 0 3 6
14 Wadi Degla 5 1 2 2 5
15 Enppi 5 1 1 3 4
16 Smouha SC 5 1 1 3 4
17 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 0 4 3
18 El Gouna FC 5 0 2 3 2
19 Asyut Petrol 5 0 2 3 2
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 10 3 +7 12
2 Pyramids FC 5 9 1 +8 15
3 Al Ahly 5 9 3 +6 13
4 Zamalek SC 5 8 1 +7 13
5 Petrojet 5 8 8 0 7
6 Future FC 5 7 4 +3 10
7 Al Ittihad 5 6 3 +3 10
8 El Mokawloon 5 6 5 +1 7
9 Enppi 5 6 9 -3 4
10 El Geish 5 5 5 0 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 5 5 0 6
12 AL Masry 5 5 7 -2 6
13 Masr 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Wadi Degla 5 4 5 -1 5
15 National Bank of Egypt 5 4 7 -3 6
16 El Gouna FC 5 3 6 -3 2
17 Smouha SC 5 1 4 -3 4
18 Asyut Petrol 5 1 5 -4 2
19 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 8 -7 3
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1 9 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 4.7 1.0 +3.7 15
2 AL Masry 5 4.8 2.7 +2.1 6
3 Petrojet 5 5.3 3.7 +1.6 7
4 National Bank of Egypt 5 4.0 2.4 +1.6 6
5 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 5.5 4.1 +1.4 12
6 Al Ahly 5 4.2 3.0 +1.2 13
7 Wadi Degla 5 3.6 3.3 +0.3 5
8 Smouha SC 5 2.2 1.9 +0.3 4
9 Asyut Petrol 5 1.9 1.7 +0.2 2
10 Future FC 5 4.6 4.5 +0.1 10
11 Al Ittihad 5 3.7 3.6 +0.1 10
12 El Geish 5 2.9 3.0 -0.1 7
13 Masr 5 3.1 3.6 -0.5 7
14 Enppi 5 4.9 5.7 -0.8 4
15 Abu Qair Semad 5 0.9 1.7 -0.8 3
16 El Mokawloon 5 3.4 4.4 -1.0 7
17 El Gouna FC 5 3.2 4.9 -1.7 2
18 Olympic El Qanah 5 2.4 4.5 -2.1 6
19 Zamalek SC 5 2.6 5.0 -2.4 13
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1.9 5.0 -3.1 1