Francs Borains U21 vs RWDM U21 Statistics & Analysis

Francs Borains U21

Oct 09, 2026 - 18:30

1 1.15

1 1.45

xG Accuracy: 85%

RWDM U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 RWDM U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12705421

Closing Odds 1.69

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Francs Borains U21 1–1 RWDM U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.85 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 9.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Francs Borains U21 (1X2)	28.4	26.5	+1.9
Draw (1X2)	29.2	20.1	+9.2
RWDM U21 (1X2)	42.4	53.4	-11.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.2% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.1%. The difference — about 9.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betsson → melbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Francs Borains U21 (1X2)	3.4	3.41	+0.3
Draw (1X2)	4.25	4.5	-0.8
RWDM U21 (1X2)	1.68	1.69	+0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Reserve Pro League
Fixture: Francs Borains U21 vs RWDM U21
Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Francs Borains U21 1.15 — RWDM U21 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Reserve Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	3	0	1	9
2	Kortrijk U21	4	3	0	1	9
3	RWDM U21	4	2	1	1	7
4	RAAL La Louviere U21	4	2	1	1	7
5	Westerlo U21	3	2	0	1	6
6	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	3	2	0	1	6
7	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	3	1	0	2	3
8	Francs Borains U21	3	1	0	2	3
9	RFC de Liege U21	3	1	0	2	3
10	Lierse K. U21	3	0	1	2	1
11	Sp. Hasselt U21	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	16	6	+10	9
2	Westerlo U21	3	8	5	+3	6
3	Kortrijk U21	4	7	3	+4	9
4	Francs Borains U21	3	7	9	-2	3
5	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	3	6	4	+2	6
6	RAAL La Louviere U21	4	6	8	-2	7
7	RWDM U21	4	5	5	0	7
8	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	3	4	2	+2	3
9	Lierse K. U21	3	3	8	-5	1
10	Sp. Hasselt U21	4	3	9	-6	1
11	RFC de Liege U21	3	2	8	-6	3