RAAL La Louviere U21 vs Waasland-Beveren U21 Statistics & Analysis

RAAL La Louviere U21

Aug 28, 2026 - 18:30

3 1.28

2 1.32

xG Accuracy: 52%

Waasland-Beveren U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Waasland-Beveren U21 RAAL La Louviere U21 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 03:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4943799

Closing Odds 2.12

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result RAAL La Louviere U21 win · RAAL La Louviere U21 3–2 Waasland-Beveren U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Waasland-Beveren U21 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
RAAL La Louviere U21 (1X2)	34.2	42.0	-7.7
Draw (1X2)	29.7	24.9	+4.8
Waasland-Beveren U21 (1X2)	36.1	33.2	+2.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.9%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
RAAL La Louviere U21 (1X2)	2.12	2.12
Draw (1X2)	3.58	3.58
Waasland-Beveren U21 (1X2)	2.68	2.68

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Reserve Pro League
Fixture: RAAL La Louviere U21 vs Waasland-Beveren U21
Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): RAAL La Louviere U21 1.28 — Waasland-Beveren U21 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 29.4% · Probability edge: +22.4 pts · Est. EV: +76.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Reserve Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	3	0	1	9
2	RWDM U21	4	2	1	1	7
3	RAAL La Louviere U21	4	2	1	1	7
4	Westerlo U21	3	2	0	1	6
5	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	3	2	0	1	6
6	Kortrijk U21	3	2	0	1	6
7	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	3	1	0	2	3
8	Francs Borains U21	3	1	0	2	3
9	RFC de Liege U21	3	1	0	2	3
10	Sp. Hasselt U21	3	0	1	2	1
11	Lierse K. U21	3	0	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	16	6	+10	9
2	Westerlo U21	3	8	5	+3	6
3	Francs Borains U21	3	7	9	-2	3
4	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	3	6	4	+2	6
5	RAAL La Louviere U21	4	6	8	-2	7
6	RWDM U21	4	5	5	0	7
7	Kortrijk U21	3	4	2	+2	6
8	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	3	4	2	+2	3
9	Lierse K. U21	3	3	8	-5	1
10	Sp. Hasselt U21	3	2	6	-4	1
11	RFC de Liege U21	3	2	8	-6	3